Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancing and Eq, page-10

re: Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancin... "I don't know this, but one could assume that given the scale of the destruction and the contaminated areas, that there will no doubt be higher demand for undamaged or unaffected property"

I agree with you there adds1973, I made similar observation in one of my previous posts.

It is the way the world works that from some peoples misfortune others benefit.
My sympathies are with the unfortunate survivors and I wish them well.

If I remember correctly, the AJA occupancy rates were already in mid nineties with the residential RE at almost 100% and best performing of the lot. Most of the tenants have long leases and AJA is not likely to upset them too much by hitting the with big increases, even if they could.

Unlike you, I do not see the Ausie going to 80c US or 70 yen anytime soon if at all. With US still trying to dig itself from the hole and Japan with economy in low gear even before the recent disasters, aging population about to start withdrawing money from the accounts that invested in Japan government debt currently at 200% of GDP, it will be hard yakka for Japanese government to come with more cash to pay for the repairs to to infrastructure, highways government buildings and who knows what else.

They could try a bit of Quantitative Easing, US style. There is nothing like a bit of inflation to break the back of deflation they have been struggling with for yonks.
But inflation is not likely to make the yen stronger on FX markets like it is not helping the greenback ATM, it is not so much Aussie rising as it is the greenback falling IMO that gave us the $1.05 and beyond.
The second part of the rise IMO is that the world has finally came to it senses and realized that this little country in terms of population is not going bust like rest of the developed world, just the opposite and started to to take us more seriously. They must have believed Tony Abbot and his mates complaining on daily basis about enormous debt Labour was saddling our grandchildren with. I did not think there was that much wrong with a bit of debt that Tony Abbot's dad and John Howard's dad left to us, and we paid off. After all they build us railways and Opera House and Harbour Bridge which I got to use and and see often and so much better than the punt Tony Abbot would give instead of the Harbour Bridge.

Anyway, rest of the world actually had a look IMO and found out it was only 6% of the GDP and we are stupid enough to sack young scientists from research projects and cull, chop, slash and burn, so we can pay it all off by this time next year. So they are on the buying spree ATM and old Aussie bleeder suddenly became flavor of the month and I think months to come.


I have not totally given up on the stock, but as I said before I got sick of waiting for AJA to make me a decent return. The generous distributions were eroded greatly by unrelenting falls in SP. So when I identified more promising opportunities IMO, I started pulling out.

I hope that I am wrong and Japanese economy really takes of with strong and rising RE market and strong yen. But ATM my finger is still twitching.