Just as a side note - realise that even though I have these...

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dej

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08/11/16

10:11

Post #: 20442011
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Originally posted by dej ↑

Main positive points from me:
- We have a TFS for the pumped hydro. These reports are hard to complete and with such a small team at Genex I am impressed by their work.

Main negative points for me:
- Optimized model gives reduction from 450MW installed capacity to 250MW. Originally, back when the prospectus was filed, they stated an installed capacity of 330MW between the two existing pits. Then they said they can get 450MW from a turkeys nest to lower pit arrangement. The additional capital cost of the turkeys nest was balanced with the additional capacity. Now we have a turkeys nest with 250MW capacity. So additional capital cost and less capacity.
- As per a snapshot of timelines from a presentation (will try find link if anyone is interested) the timeline for financial close was Q1 2017 and this is now Q4 2017. That's a huge discrepancy.
- Not sure if the TFS will pass off as a BFS. The BFS for the Pumped Hydro project, as per same presentation from above, was meant to be completed in Q3 2016. Given you need capital cost estimates for a BFS, and the capital cost estimates from this announcement state they will continue into Q1 and Q2 of 2017, then the BFS is now going to be around the same sized discrepancy as the financial close.

What I took from this announcement is that the PHS project has been delayed approximately 6 - 12 months. (Side note, I realise projects are always delivered later than planned and usually cost more).

Would love to have some discussion regarding some of the points above.

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Just as a side note - realise that even though I have these concerns I am not selling any shares.

The solar project alone is worth a share price higher than what we have now.

In fact 25% of my ASX portfolio is in GNX.

Last edited by dej: 08/11/16

GNX Price at posting: 25.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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