Originally posted by Propunter2
Here are a few thoughts for 2019 'perfect storm' of which TNG will play a part. I've just been given a few more days leave which I plan to work on fleshing out the below over Xmas....
Development of NT mining industry will play a big part - not sure it will matter which side of politics wins the Fed election, both have made indications that this will be something they'll support. TNG will be the start, but there are other companies which will benefit from this. From a State/Territory Goverment perspective, sounds like out of necessity they
must encourage new industry.
TNG is working on lots of '1sts' not just getting a mine/refinery underway in the NT, but planning on proving out TIVAN on a resource with lower grades than the likes of BBI. I suspect a big part of this is if the financials are so compelling with the grades of TNG, then
anyone else with a Titano-magnetite resource where any one of the 3 V-Ti-Fe is higher would have to look at whether this technology could benefit their bottom line. That includes companies like AVL, Atlantic/Windimurra, Bushveld. So I'm not worried these companies don't appear to be considering TIVAN
now - if TNG raise the funds to build their mine/refinery, they all will.
Balla Balla is on the radar albeit with some level of angst around resource life. I suspect this could play a more important role in 2019. Not least of which has to do with the head honcho over there...
Private wealth will play a role - Atlantic, FMG, Roy Hill, BBI, Vimson all with majority or extremely large stakes owned by individuals who have higher levels of autonomy than publicly owned companies.
The TNG team. Paul & the new recruits. Well qualified individuals. There is something to this & I expect to see the building of this team continue in this light. I've worked on a lot of projects over the years & have to say the potential this one has to radically re-shape what the Australian resource industry looks like is second to none with their proposed multi-stream, value added outputs.
These things are happening....
Rapid development of Indian Steel industry.
Belt & Road initiative.
$4 Trillion Chinese Stimulus
Rapid transition to renewables supported by storage.
There is a lot of reading to do, lots of thinking to do, lots of rabbits to follow down whatever burrows they lead & as is always the case lots of lines of reasoning to discount.
Keep an eye out in a few weeks as I'm always happy to share whatever conclusions my D&D arrives at. I'll be angling it to see if I can get it up on a blog like Seeking Alpha, as this is, at least when you scratch the surface, an extraordinary story in the making.
All the best for a happy & safe Christmas & look forward to an exceptional New Year in 2019 for TNG.
Originally posted by maxter
Hi PP2. I have remained tight lipped since the AVL PFS announcement. That is till now. Im no expert but one has to look at the history of AVL to get a perspective on its metioric SP rise and dump. Much will be remembered by the long suffering.
AVL was formally YRR.ASX that is till its name change in December 2015. Previously like many others including TNG it had ridden the 2005 to 2007 V spike. TNG picked up its maiden V drilling results a little after and started scoping srudies 2009 to 2011 when the big Chinese investment came on board.
That early flurry settled and through to 2014/5 only TNG and Windimurra actively progressed their respective projects. Windimurra commennced a c $700 mill project construction 2012 and maiden ore in 2012. The mining required further optimisation and restructuring from that point and in February 2014 closed down due to fire.
TNG dillegently refined a unique matalurgical process, we know it as TIVAN.
During this time V2O5 and Ferrovanadium were almost exclusively used in the steel market place. By 2015 the idea of VRF ESS was gaining momentum. YRR morphed into AVL, changed its look and mirrored TSX. AVC , (American vanadium Corp). In fact tgey formed a pact focusing on the emerging battery storage platform. Both linked up with Gildemeister and talked vertically inegrated projects mining the key commodity snd in tern marketting the end product VRF batterues. The sole reason was that neither AVL's Gabanintha project or AVCs Gibellini progect were commercially viable at that time with loosely assessed production cost way above commodity prices. In fact AVC never became commercially viable and relinquished its leases soon after riding into the Navada sunset tail between legs. Ironically Prophecy TSX.PCY picked up tge leases 2017 (from memory) and are now running the same mantra. The Gibellini prospect is extremely low grade and quantity. Prophecy say tgey can punch out a pound of v2o5 at a little over US$4.00. We'll see in time.
Back to AVL . Huge resource, high grade too, but no advanced metallurgical process, there fore no real costings available despite actually having a PFS 2011. No actual infrastructure costings or any of the detail that we in TNG have ripped our hair out waiting for. At least we have it. Their PFS could have been and possibly was written on the back of a cigarette packet. Savvy investors are walking. They, AVL, surfed a wave focusing on headlines and the ES market, but havnt come any were near completing the ground work required to put out a meaningful PFS in the promised timeline. In their race to produce vanadium electrolyte for a single market use they have exposed themselves as commercially vulnerable and very thin on detail. They are heading down the same hole as AVC unless they can regroup and refocus. Huge capital is required to get them anywere near a bankers door.
All in my very humble opinion of course.
P.S. did I mention that TNG has been the snail but won the race. If not. TNG has been the snail but won the race.
@growler1969
