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DJ Iron Ore Prices Seen Supported For 15 Years - Standard Chartered

09-Sep-2011
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Iron ore prices should remain well supported for the next 15 years, despite easing fundamentals after 2014, as rising costs pressure producers, Standard Chartered said Friday.

Iron ore--currently trading at around $180 a metric ton on the spot market--should reach $200/ton by the end of the fourth quarter this year, analyst Judy H Zhu said in the bank's latest research note.

However, $200/ton is "not the end of the story," said Zhu.

"As the supply response will likely be very limited for at least the next three years, it is possible that spot prices will remain above $200/ton at some point between 2012 and 2014, in our view," she said, adding that the bank sees iron ore prices averaging at $181/ton in 2012 to 2014.

While prices are expected to peak in 2014 and the currently-tight market will begin to move into balance in 2015, iron ore should average at $123/ton between 2018 and 2026, supported by rising production costs, she said.

"For the next 15 years, we believe that iron ore prices will not return to 2009 levels," Zhu said.

Following the financial crisis, the price of 62% ferrous content iron ore slumped 70% to around $60/ton in the first quarter of 2009