Hi @Evision - happy to give you my thoughts. Revenue figures are...

Hi @Evision - happy to give you my thoughts.

Revenue figures are IMO irrelevant for the company in its current stage - i.e. exploration / reserve qualification stage.

Below is an extract from a recent broker report with O&G peers (note all of these are pre-revenue explorers and most do NOT have offtake agreements in place)



Now - how does FPL compare?

Mkt Cap - 6m
Net Cash - 1m
Enterprise Value - 5m
Reserves (2P) - n/a
Contingent Resource (2C) - 232PJ
EV/2P ($/GJ)  - N/A
EV/2C ($/GJ) - $0.02 (2 cents)

Things to note on this comparison...

1 - FPL currently report their 2C reserves on one field (pathfinder field) in BCF metric (Billion Cubic Feet) the conversion is close to 1BCF = 1.054PJ . Here is a nice converter for you http://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/cubic-feet-of-natural-gas-to-petajoules

2 - On the pathfinder field, given the strong gas flows, FPL have engaged a 3rd party to re-evaluate the reserves as they believe they are SIGNIFICANTLY more than the reported 220BCF (this was in today's announcement)

3 - I am using today's mkt cap (which gives EV/2C ($/GJ) of 0.02c) for FPL; whereas the attached table is a little dated. For example GLL is now worth 78m mkt cap as it re-rated 70% (so far) upon the release of that valuation report.

The average valuation across the group is approx $0.20 (20 cents) within the EV/2C ($/GJ) metric.

On this alone, FPL's mkt cap would be c. 50m (10 bags from here).

Note however, management believes that there are significantly more reserves than those reported... so as the reserves increase, so should the valuation. If, for example, after review there turns out to be twice as much gas - i.e. 440BCF of gas, using the same average valuation of $0.20 on an EV/2C ($/GJ) basis, the mkt cap would be 100m or 20 bags from here.

All this is without a gas off take agreement - which would change the game again...

So as you see, it's not about revenue. It is about the level of commercial gas reserves at this point in time.

The above is also why I ignore a lot of the 'noise' on this forum that the disgruntled ex-AKK holders are making. It will pass because the resource is there and appears to be flowing at a commercial rate. As this turnaround story does the rounds, fresh eyes will see what I am seeing & given how cheap (relatively against its peers) it is, pips will be insignificant...

Hope this helps.