I was an investor - didnt pay $1.00 per unit so maybe just a little disappointed as opposed to the people who stumped up the full purchase price, paid around 20c per unit.
Sold them all. Why?
Easily put:
1. When it was free it barely reached the projected levels. That really spooked me if I was offered something for free all the prospective customers would take it up that should by its very nature exceed the projections by about 30% as 30% less would be not prepared to pay the costs. This was not the case.
2. The fact that during this period the users said it was very full and almost congested.
3. Just a simple cash projection suggested big trouble ahead for unit holders. Any reduction in traffic has to be taken by the unit holders in its valuation but in reality there isnt enough traffic to cover the debt servicing and the first check on covenants is not far away. Plus how do you fund the debt servicing in the short term. The buffer cash isnt enough.
4. Believe that these so called experts who project traffic volume should really get sued by someone one day. How can you be so wrong. If they had suggested less than 30000 and ramped that up as per other toll roads they would have concluded its not viable unless far bigger donation from Brisbane Council. So they told everybody what they wanted to hear and the suckers bought it - me included. However they get paid and you cannot hold them accountable even though they are paid for their advice and the updates they did when the Bris Connection was on the table as well.
Whilst I am not a great lover of this forum of II look at it it gives a good commentary:
Once you add this all up it gets to the fact that everything you put into the model suggests you have done your dough - How can it grow to break even in time to get past the first covenants.
Overall I reckon the tunnel will be a success but as a unit holder now I reckon you have done your dough.
RCY Price at posting:
5.2¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
