"3) That brings me to the St Andrews deal. I thought about this...

"3) That brings me to the St Andrews deal. I thought about this today and suddenly realised it will go through almost 100%, despite the fact that Freedom now have little synergy to offer." - I agree. Rightly or wrongly, I'd assign maybe a 95% probability that this deal will go ahead. If it was dead at any point they would have had to immediately disclose this under ASX listing rules, or at least halt/suspend the stock while they confirmed.

"BOQ is desperate to offload this for legal compliance" - I also agree but would add that it is more than just about legal compliance but reputation. In the scheme of things, this is business is small fry for them and not worth hanging onto given the potential continuing brand damage it comes with for their core business and the management time it would take up.

BOQ is an extremely motivated seller to the point where I don't think they care much about the price and whether its worth it.

I originally bought a very small position at 8.8c, thinking that would be it. But if it gets much lower than it has today, then I would be tempted to increase my holdings.

This is not a risk free, and there is still a lot of uncertainty - but the potential upside is enormous.

Speaking more broadly, what I find is that the best opportunities to find deep value arise when there is the most uncertainty and fear. If there is no fear and everyone feels confident about the future, the price is often already bid up so far that there is little value left.