Fwiw my thesis on XPD boils down to: 1. The auditor has had past...

Fwiw my thesis on XPD boils down to:
1. The auditor has had past problems with company staff interefering with cash balance verification in china. I think their current procedures would rely on direct checking at the bank hq and therefore the cash is likely real.
2. If the cash is real then one risk of loss comes from the CCP preventing dividend repatriation forever. I think this is unlikely unless a full blown war develops.
3. The final (and i think greatest) risk comes from Zhang. He could fritter the cash away with undisclosed related party transactions within china or through poor management. Or he could see the shares as the only way to get the money out of china. I think the latter is likely to be in his best interests.
4. At the current sp the percentage chance of success doesn't need to be very high to make this a worthwhile bet even though there is a substantial risk of it going to zero.