For what it's worth, 12.5x EV/[Operating EBITDA] is the sort of valuation where I would contemplate starting to accumulate; that corresponds to a SP of 11.75$ and, by my estimates, to a Free Cash Flow yield (on EV) of 4.5%.
A premium to market of +25% in EV/EBITDA terms, vis-a-vis a market average multiple of about 10.0x, is what I feel is roughly appropriate (albeit not necessarily cheap) for a business like IVC, i.e. highly durable, non-cyclical [*], and with a dominant market position [**].
At a multiple of 17.5x, which is where the enterprise was valued at the peak, I thought the stock was clearly overvalued.
IMHO & DYOR
[*]: Except for the discretionary component of the business (i.e. whether one opts for a basic funeral service or for something more elaborate) and for the market cyclicality embedded into the prepaid business.
[**]: While IVC remains the biggest player in its industry by a margin, the prolonged loss of market share is an aspect that does warrant some concern and, I feel, hasn’t been addressed by Management in a satisfactory way.
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