There is the remaining $7.3m Investec debt. There are 35m in trade debt. And it seems a large chunk of that is owed to the government of Guyana. The same government that owes Troy millions of vat refunds. If you take a look at the balance sheet and consider the normal level of trade debt at the revenue Troy has to be $8m, there is "only" 18m in excessive trade debt remaining.
So the path forward is quite clear. Take care of the bank debt now. If operations are going slightly better than guidance it should be possible. There might be other solutions like deferring the royalty payments for a quarter. There might be a deal with Investec taking care of the options as well.
The June quarter has no chance to generate significant positive cashflow for Troy. Once the Smarts cut-back is ready production will go up again and there will be significant cashflow, maybe $7-9m per quarter starting from the September quarter if the cut-back is finished mid-year. That will only last for 2 or 3 quarters. At the same time trial mining (near TRC001 at surface) at OC could produce additional 3000 oz per quarter for 3 quarters also starting from the September quarter. OC itself could be ready March to June 2020, maybe earlier.
If that scenario comes to pass Troy could see positive cashflow within the September quarter of 12m. For the December quarter as well. That would mean ALL debt could be paid of before this year is over.
The major issues Troy faces are doubt about short-term finances, clearly it would make sense to emphasize exploration spending now. The SPP would have derisked that. The second issue is the Investec options. They would bring in $3.6m at the end of September if the share price is above 13 cents. Does it make sense? No. Troy needs capital now, not at the end of September when the September quarter alone could generate $12m. At the same time the options are unsatisfactory to Investec as well, because the share price is lower than the exercise price and the overhang from the options would keep the share price from rising above 13 cents.
If a deal is reached that sees some sort of reduced debt repayment and conversion of the options into shares, that would lead to a real rerating of teh share price. Investec could sell the shares over the remainder of the year at a much higher price when additional news from OC arrives. Long-term shareholders cannot complain, they had a chance to buy shares at the SPP. Larger shareholders have every reason to be disgruntled. But if that scenario comes to pass Troy could be paying dividends again or even buy back shares in 2020. All profits from OC would go to shareholders this time. And Troy would finally be able to drill Goldstar, where mineralisation has already been found, and explore Gem Creek.
The next three to four weeks will decide over Troy's future. I have no doubt this stock will become a multi-bagger if sanity prevails now.
TRY Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
