Assuming that we use the US$20m of cashflow as a benchmark for valuation then:
* let's risk weight the US$20, say 50% probability it actually happens
* so US$10m, then in A$ terms it's more like A$14m
* arguably this is a growth company given the projections for more smelters and company say cashflow margin could get to US$100m over time, then it must be valued like a growth company, so on a multiple of >10x cashflow
* need to discount it a bit because of the country / political risk longer term, so maybe at 6-7x immediate cashflow
* therefore A$80m-$100m which implies a stock price of 3-4 cents
*definitely below 4.2 cents
GMC Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
