BLY 0.92% 54.0¢ boart longyear group ltd

It's the creditors Ares selling out. They have a huge stake like...

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  1. 489 Posts.
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    It's the creditors Ares selling out. They have a huge stake like around 5 - 7 billion shares. They are holding it down and are obviously happy to dump at this price.

    When the last quarterly was released it was relatively positive but price never got above 1.3c because they just dumped into all the buying. They'll probably do the same come the HY but by then hopefully have a lot less shares to dump and the effect will be less severe.

    Regardless of this price will always be low in the near future (sub 10c as a guess) because the value per share is minute due 26B shares. The market simply won't bid it up unless the forward lookings are insane like amazon or tesla with PE's > 100. Unlikely with a driller. To further illustrate, I'm unsure how many issued shares BLY had prior to the re-cap but if we assume 1 billion then theoretically price should be 26 times the current price if the re-cap never happened ie 26c right now. So if price somehow gets to 10c now, then the equivalent price under pre re-cap conditions equals $2.60. In light of the price history, and the current financial numbers, that is completely unrealistic. Meaning 10c now is completely unrealistic but never underestimate market hype.

    In hindsight I would not have taken this trade. I want out at 1.4c and hoping the scum of the earth Ares will let me out come the HY report release which will be relatively positive again. They might be cheeky this time and let price run until 3 - 5 c and then release the mother of all dumps.

    Heck Centrebridge still hold around 8B shares and they could be also dumping now but I haven't seen Form 604 and I'm thinking they're playing a longer game i.e. restore BLY as a business and then enjoy the mega profit share or sell out much higher for insane profits.
 
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