re: Ann: Change of Director's Interest No...
Okay let us take the emotion out of this. I only voiced my opinion that I found it amusing that you (TBE) had exited holding at a small profit but seem intent on frequently airing negative views on a stock that you have no pecuniary interest. It just seems strange. I will raise some points but I am fully aware I could be completely wrong because like you I agree how NBS has conducted its business to date as totally amateur, somewhat non transparent and as a investment it carries alot of risk. Also just to defuse the situation, I generally agree with all of your comments about past performance and behaviour of NBS and its officers. However, I believe (fate may deem it to be naive!) it may be a good time to invest due to the following.
1. I am assuming that Malaysian contract will formally commence soon and that the scope and $ of project is material. The GFC has had a profound impact on government budgets and NBS did not foresee this and were too quick to hail the merits of this project whilst being incredibly slow to announce de-railment (deferral possibly?). It is question of whether you believe 'the boy who cried wolf' yet again. I believe that there has been improvement in Malaysian Government finances and NBS announcements that project will re-commence. I would understand why alot of other people would not. However, I think NBS has learnt plenty of painful lessons of premature announcements and the resultant impact on their credibility. They are now far more circumspect and I see that as a positive and gives some credence to positive announcements for this project. From a financial assessment, if you did a discounted cash flow analysis on assumptions of a 10 year, significant revenue stream then NPV, IRR of this project generates significant value for NPV (far exceeding present share price). As you would counter in the negative (the past gives you a credible foundation), it all depends on whether you believe the current story given past record of this company. I am one who does.. it is that simple.
2. The fact that rights issues was fully underwritten by Chinese (Hong Kong) interests to me is a positive development. The previous structure of the China Gas Tank project was poor and NBS has been less than transparent and fully deserves a rap on the knuckles as to how it informed the market and also its accounting of initial revenue, collection of debtors and then subsequent payment for rights to the project. It was very poor but I believe now it paves the way for financial success due to having direct involvement and majority control (which it did not have previously)in the delivery of this project. Again it comes down to the fact is the project 'real' and will it deliver a significant revenue stream to NBS. I believe the answer is yes and the recent changes will assist. If the answer is yes then similar to Malysian project this will deliver substantial financial value to NBS. The Chinese (public company)and Asian investor it appears (at face value) recognise this and have gladly stumped up a not insignificant amount of money. 3. Pipeline seems impressive but I have not made my investment decision on them. It would be great if a significant Cambodian or Vietnamese contract is realised but I would not bank on it. 4. Current price is only cheap if you believe in future prospects (and in particular points 1&2). Otherwise it really is a bit of a 'dog' at the moment and should be valued alot lower.
So in conclusion, I am happy for you to submit a contrarian view to mine. I definitely am not putting my hand on my heart and saying this is going to be a winner. I reiterate this is a speculative investment that I consider to be high risk which of course I consider to have a high reward profile. I also reiterate that I simply do not understand your motive for taking every opportunity to post negative comments about a stock you have exited (at a small profit). If it is to warn prospective investors to stay away (caveat emptor) then a simple search of history of posts will suffice for them. Why is it this company has had a profound emotional impact on you and your posts are personal, negative and frequent? Would it not be better to seek out positive opportunities than waste your time on this stock that you apparently have no interest at all in re-investing?
Happy to leave it at that. Nothing personal of my side. I have had 25 years of investing and I have won some and lost some. If I lose on this then I move on and hope my wins more than compensate my losses. I would definitely not take it personally and make it my goal to lambast the stock. I consider that a poor reflection on myself.
Anyway - Happy investing!
NBS Price at posting:
8.7¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held