Lack of new partnerships and committed sales is a worry. As far as I can tell, they've still only got 3 retailers signed on for their digital receipts product - Nordstrom, Express and Guess. They've signed one new venue - Cadillac Fairview - but venues aren't retailers and I'm not sure if a venue can do anything other than offer Live Receipts as an option for their retailer tenants to use. So I'm not sure you can count on guaranteed, committed sales from their mall partnerships. Meanwhile, there's no mention of any product launches at Taubman's and Macerich.
@vagabond84
You have omitted to mention URW and LAX among the venues/retailers that have signed on. You also have omitted to mention New Stand and Steiner + Associates among those who have expressed an intention to do so by getting into partnership agreements.
With regard to Cadillac Fairview: if you just look on their website, there is a description of how they’re using the Live Receipts product:
https://www.cadillacfairview.com/en...and_Friends_Together_this_Holiday_Season.html
Quoting from the “Innovative Digital Service Offerings” paragraph, in the link above:
“…as part of CF’s Holiday experience, CF is inviting shoppers to participate in testing a number of new digital innovation concepts that provide shoppers with the option of reserving a paid parking spot in advance at select CF shopping centres and managing their Santa booking and CF Gift Wrap Valet experience through Hadley live receipt.”
So, if I understand correctly, the Live Receipt in this instance is sent directly by the venue to those CF customers who pre-book a parking spot, and allows them to purchase/manage other services provided by the venue (not by individual retailers), such as the CF Gift Wrap Valet and the Santa interactive experiences.
Therefore, as far as revenues for OneMarket are concerned, it seems logical to me that CF would pay a subscription fee for the duration of their Live Receipts trial programme. And that would represent “committed and guaranteed sales”, as you put it; the point here is not so much the materiality of this individual contract, but the fact that same idea can be replicated across all other mall partnerships.
As to Taubman and Macerich: it would obviously be good to know when they are going to launch, but I wouldn’t (yet) question their intention to do it at some point. Let’s not forget that we are talking about some of the largest shopping mall operators in the world, so they must have seen commercial potential in OneMarket’s products, if they decided to get into a partnership agreement.
The $2.8m sales per quarter they're doing is low, particularly if as I suspect most of it comes from the shopper exchange product. Meaning the new Live Receipts launches won't add meaningfully to sales next reported quarter. But this is just speculation on my part as I don't know exactly what the 2.8m revenue breakdown looks like.
In the Demerger Booklet (page 66) it is stated that 12 Digit (subsequently rebranded as OneMarket Shopper Exchange) contributed 1.7US$ in cumulative revenue between the time they got acquired (February 2017) and the time of the demerger (June 2018). What makes you think that the same product then contributed most of the 2.0mUS$ revenue generated during the September 2018 quarter alone?
I agree that it would be nice to have the revenue breakdown, and I am fairly sure that will be the case as soon as revenues start increasing materially; if anything, because there are still deferred considerations payable by OneMarket in relation to the 12 Digit acquisition, depending on possible after-tax profits generated by the Shopper Exchange product in 2019 and 2020.
My assessment may well be wrong as I admit I don't have a good grasp of OMN's technology product offering, but it sure feels to me like more was expected out of them in the past 6 months.
What exactly did you expect? You surely do realise that, even increasing revenues by just 1mUS$ per quarter (which doesn’t really look like a high bar to me), OneMarket will break even and start turning profits well before running out of cash? How much do you think the Company will be worth then? And how much will it be worth if the revenue growth rate is higher (which also doesn’t look too far-fetched a prospect)?
But maybe STAM doesn't feel the bet is diminished. It's just guesswork on my part, based on my assessment of the recent performance, as well as the share price behaviour over that time.
STAM are still adding, in my opinion, not because they want to position for a wind-up, but because they think the risk/reward is very heavily skewed in their favour at current price. I really wouldn’t look at the share price as a scorecard, after a spin-off with an overwhelming majority of unnatural holders and a broad-based market meltdown.
I'm still inclined to think that OMN is worth more dead than alive right now.
All I can answer to this rather dramatic statement of yours is that, if there were an EGM tomorrow and I were asked to vote for or against a wind-up, I would definitely vote against, even though that would probably give me a very nice gain relative to my average cost. If for whatever reason the next two quarterly reports are an absolute disaster, then I may reconsider that view.