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26/05/17
21:35
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Originally posted by goldbear77
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sure ahs - when facts change i change my views
you may remember a key part of my thesis was I expected a significant fall in USD that has not materialsed
The USD was wished higher by incredibly naive or super arrogant capital . Its still about 10% above what i see as fair value given US balance sheet and income/servicing position vs other major currency blocs/nations
that was how i saw 55-65 occurring - which i saw as enough to drive $a mrm into theblack
but as time dras on the oversupply threat from US has worsened as they have consolidated shale into small number of larger scale operations driving their breakeven lower - while USD remains hovering on fairy floss and candy
just look at that 1% jump n Moonday night at Trump's draft budget shopping list - despite fact no one thinks its remotely achievable
americans bring so much firepower it doesnt matter when they are wrong
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I think what will make the needle move for MRM is dayrates and utilisations.
$30 or $55 it's doesn't matter so much. MRM, like it's competitors, just needs to oil companies to spend.
It's hard for oil companies to do so as still oil seems oversupplied. And the future demand side gets dampened also by fuel efficient cars and planes etc...