sure ahs - when facts change i change my views you may remember...

sure ahs - when facts change i change my views

you may remember a key part of my thesis was I expected a significant fall in USD that has not materialsed

The USD was wished higher by incredibly naive or super arrogant capital . Its still about 10% above what i see as fair value given US balance sheet and income/servicing position vs other major currency blocs/nations

that was how i saw 55-65 occurring - which i saw as enough to drive $a mrm into theblack

but as time dras on the oversupply threat from US has worsened as they have consolidated shale into small number of larger scale operations driving their breakeven lower - while USD remains hovering on fairy floss and candy

just look at that 1% jump n Moonday night at Trump's draft budget shopping list - despite fact no one thinks its remotely achievable

americans bring so much firepower it doesnt matter when they are wrong