re: Ann: PRT: Change in substantial holding f... It's spooky...

re: Ann: PRT: Change in substantial holding f... It's spooky rabbit :)

I sold out with the insiders after the newsletter pumping the stock did the rounds... appears PPT also got handed a copy and immediately did a deal with the CLH founding directors :P I'm not keen on CLH at these prices, the business is as risky as they come and only does well during a narrow band of the economic cycle (when the economy is running well, no business; and when the economy is running bad, they're left holding the bag), but for the time being they're in the sweet spot. I suspect Australia is on the slippery slope downwards, and the employment situation hasn't been this bad since the 90s recession. CLH's ultimate success will depend on how well they can transition the business in a zero/negative growth environment, ie. Reducing debts and upping the quality of the PDLs they carry on the balance sheet.

Anyway, perhaps something to ponder, the XAO had a paper gain of some $650 billion in January on the back of $1 billion of monetary inflows mainly from US based global equity funds and emerging market ETFs. At some stage the rise from 4400 to 5000 will need to back filled - markets just don't rise on thin air (~650:1 leverage is insane) driving it without retesting the ground from whence it rose.
ASX shares are now by far my biggest short position :) I ran a few more stimulations today, especially on the data available from Feb 1 to 8, and it appears the ASX business is contracting at a rate of 15% yoy. And I've noticed Comsec downgrade ASX to a sell. (https://www2.comsec.com.au/media/analystresearch/2013_02_07_06_00/ASX%20Limited_CS_1.pdf)

And to take the idea one step further, if the capital being shifted around the ASX has shrunk by 15%, then I'm of the idea that FUM inflows into PPT in January was probably stable and has started shrinking again late Jan and has continued declining in February. This will no doubt be offset by a positive FUM revaluation for January, but things I believe continue to look grim for the sector.