Volumes up, market share up, earnings down, margins down, premium service volume flat, worse half 1, but improved performance in half 2 expected. (I assume that is for Australia, as there is 6.5m annual EBITDA accretion expected for international from acqs).
It is a bit confusing that many different terminologies are used that might not be financially/directly comparable. Premium Service volume was flat for Q1 19, while in the FY18 annual report it was stated that "Specialist diagnostic revenue increased by 3.6% in FY18 compared to FY17 reflecting further increases in genetic testing utilisation. Revenue growth in our PGD/PGS activity was 10.3% on pcp and this activity represents higher utilisation of this capability in our full service clinics at 17.7% of fresh cycles (FY17:13.9%). The level of general endocrinology testing also increased slightly." So do we have a significant fall in rate of take-up of these specialist services? I thought these should be still growing at least moderately. It is concerning that VRT is battling in the low margin and older tech end of the market, and not able to grow the specialised end of the market.
IVF cycles for Q1 were up 2.25% (using medicare 13200 and 13201) in VRT states in q1. They are saying the ARS market was up 0.8% in Virtus's markets. (Not at all the same metric I realise - but quite a disparity with my number - I may be tracking the wrong things?). By my numbers 1.9% would be a slight loss of market share.
Would love some comments, if anybody can clarify anything.
VRT Price at posting:
$4.89 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held