Hi CPDLC, can I ask how you come to the US$732 AISC figure for FY17? Seems remarkably low. I estimate US$100/oz will be knocked off from this year as the service shaft is finished. What grade can we expect do you think once the service shaft is complete? Are you using the reserve grade of 7.3 g/t ?
My base estimate is for 150,000 oz next year but that could be on the low side if they can achieve 7.3g/t x 2500 tpd x 365 days x 90% mill utilisation x 94% recovery = 180,000 oz.
Below is a chart I've put together of Enterprise value / free cash flow for all ASX gold producers using today's gold price of US$1070/oz and AUD/USD of 71 cents. MML stands out as very cheap in FY17 if using US$850 as an AISC let alone US$732. DRM is the other I like for its growth over the next 12-18 months.
The other thing I had to look up yesterday was debt. MML has some debt which is not mentioned in the quarterlies only in the accounts. At 30 June they had US$5.4M of borrowings, 3.8 of which is due this year. I'm assuming the movements in the payables/receivables in the September quarter was paying off a portion of these loans. Wish they would be a bit more transparent on this.
I added to my holding at 42 this morning. I'll be buying more if it goes below 40.
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