I agree re: next 6 months. All agree that U.S tight oil (shale is the wrong term used by the media) does decline at much higher rates than conventional sources.
In fact the Eagle Ford and Bakken have clearly peaked.
The question then is can growth in the Permian offset decline of conventional and non-conventional oil as well as global demand growth.
In the long term the answer is certainly no, in the short term it depends on the the supply of economic drilling areas and the ability to fund uneconomic drilling as a function of the price of oil.
I suspect we will find that supply is woefully inadequate without higher prices (perhaps even with) and I hope I have spread this information when it was controversial, unpopular and therefore very useful (if far too early).
It's pretty unrewarding being a contrarian on here rather than pumping and dumping lithium stocks. By definition it seems you must be alone in your opinion.