You summed it up better than I did. Full year Npata will...

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theworst911

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28/11/17

10:54

Post #: 29172218
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Originally posted by saintly96 ↑

I think this is a pretty good update but takes some interpretation (as this stock always does).

It's important not to just extrapolate the result over the full year because the first 4 months (certainly the first 3) of the financial year are always the weakest.

It's worth noting that by the end of October last year (33% of the year) they had only made 27% of their annual EBITDA and only 17% of their operational cashflow.

Despite that they managed to improve their net cash position by $1.4m (while putting money into Crowd Media).

Q&A result was very impressive and just as a stand-alone business this thing would be a market darling.
Subscription business was also ok - looks bad because it is down on the PCP but - is flat on the last quarter despite this being the slowest time of year - so definitely looking like they have arrested the fall in this.

Media division is a mystery. Would have been good if they gave some indication of whether the $800k loss for the first 4 months is indicative of the rest of the year. Lets assume it is and pencil it in for a $2m loss for the year.

There is no reason why the wouldn't be in line to match last year's EBITDA for the two profitable divisions of around 10m. But this year there will only be about 1.2m in interst costs. SO the NPATA for these businesses will be about $6-6.5m. Take away the after tax effect of Crowd Media's loss and you get about $4.6-5.1m - above last years NPATA despite the start up costs of Media.

On the upside: Q&A could blow last year out of the water. Subscription will start cycling poorer performing quarters so will look better. Crowd Media might move towards break even.

All the while they are likely to be cash positive by the new year - on track with the prediction I have made on this site ever since the capital raising.

Sellers are likely those who simply looked at the Ebitda figure falling from last year without thinking about the complexities of the business. As with last year the stock will hit its straps as the big months of Nov-April get reported bit by bit.

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You summed it up better than I did.

Full year Npata will probably be in line with last year due to crowd agency costs and still cycling first half subscription business decline.

I'm not sure if market will take it positively.

Its funny because the share price would have been a lot higher without crowd media expenses. Need to report on some revenue numbers to convince the market this is the future ( despite all the talks about it)

CM8 Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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You summed it up better than I did. Full year Npata will...

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