Ann: Central Tanami Project, page-91

Guru2,

Thanks for your comment. I just checked MLX's announcement and the consideration is 4million MLX shares.

I have corrected for this below in my previous calculation.

The put options must reflect some measure of the expected post earn in value of the project, as the options are choices between the cash or non-dilution. Working backwards from the value of the puts gives each companies expected costs during the earn in periods (to Commercial Production). In MLX's case the estimate is $64 million. In NST's case the estimate is $45.5 million. Given much of the infrastructure is already in place MLX's estimate is more realistic IMO (if not a little thin).

I'm not interested in further argument on this subject, so I'll let my corrected numbers below stand and we can agree to disagree.

Value of Central Tanami Project Based on MLX offer
First 25% = $11 million + 4 million MLX shares = $5.04 million (based on the closing price of MLX shares of $1.26 on day of announcement 9/2/2015)
Second 50% =$64 million (implied value based on the put option for the sale of the last 25%)
Last 25% = $32 million (value of put option)
Total Value $112,040,000

Value of Central Tanami Project Based on NST offer
First 25% = $11 million (cash) + $9 million (NST shares)
Second 35% =$45.5 million (implied value based on 1st and 2nd put options for the sale of last 40%)
Third 15% = $20 million (value of 1st put option)
Last 25% = $32 million (value of 2nd put option)
Total Value $117,500,000

Conclusions

NST’s offer is only $5,460,000 superior to MLX’s offer in terms of the implied value placed on the project.

Under MLX’s proposal TAM can retain a maximum of 25% in the CTP with an implied current value based on MLX’s offer of $28,010,000.

Under NST’s proposal TAM can retain a maximum of 40% in the CTP with an implied current value based on NST’s offer of $47,000,000.

NST’s offer is superior in that it allows TAM to potentially retain a greater share (15% more) of future cash flows from the CTP and places a higher value on its implied retained share of the CTP ($47,000,000 verse $28,010,000).

Based on TAM’s last price of $0.026 and its corresponding undiluted market cap of $30,552,523, it is currently trading at a 53% discount to the value of its implied retained share of the CTP ($47,000,000) based on NST offer.
If the value ascribed to the CTP by the NST offer is representative of the fair value of the project then the TAM share price also currently places zero value on the Coyote Gold Project in the Western Tanami (in Western Australia) which TAM still holds with a Total Resource of 2,937,000 tonnes at 4.8g/t for 453,000 ounces.
DYOR
Eshmun