Ann: Central Petroleum on the threshold of East Coast Gas Sales, page-13

Oldmarty,

I am flattered you think I may have unique insights.  I rely on public data like everyone else.

It is unlikely CTP would be held responsible for NGP timing.  This is in Jemina's control, not CTP's.  Yesterday's announcement shows CTP raring to pump gas down NGP. It describes Mereenie as 44Tj/d firm and additional capacity on non-firm basis, probably dependent on the new field stage compressor being full operational.

IPL has contracts with CTP and with NT PWC, which has take or pay contracts with Blacktip and CTP, and is sending its surplus down the pipe.  CTP gets to unwind the liability to PWC and can recognise the PWC revenues ( ~$5m in June 2018) as this is done. See: CTP AR.  What IPL receives and what CTP pumps down NGP in its own name are two quite different numbers.

My take is, CTP is no longer customer constrained. The expanded pipe network can take all CTP output with the balance made up from Blacktip.  CTP enjoys a modest transport cost advantage relative to Blacktip up the NT Amadeus pipe to NGP, so economics dictates CTP gas moves first.

Did y'all see Angela MacDonald-Smith in AFR today?  Excerpts:

The start-up of commercial gas sales through Jemena's Northern Gas Pipeline, confirmed by customer Incitec Pivot for between December 29 and January 10, will immediately nearly triple Central's gas sales.But the physical link to east coast gas buyers who are crying out for affordable gas, combined with the boost to revenues, will also pave the way for Central to get serious about releasing the potential of its vast gas-prone acreage in the NT in the hope of becoming a more meaningful supplier.

It and partner Macquarie have upgraded the Mereenie plant in preparation, while Central has revamped Palm Valley.Mr Devaney said Central would focus on its next wave of exploration and appraisal after the start-up of the NGP as it looks to accelerate production of gas for the east coast, where he expects prices to remain robust. Among the drilling targets is the promising Dukas prospect in the southern Amadeus Basin pencilled in for the first half of 2019, which partner Santos signals has "multi-trillion cubic feet" potential."That's a significant play if that comes off, so that's quite exciting," he said."In terms of appraisal and exploration ... obviously brownfield development leveraging off existing infrastructure is low-hanging fruit, so existing resources in or around producing fields is something we're going to target as well."

Central, which has a market value of about $106 million, last year won new coal seam gas acreage released by the Queensland government and will also look at other new investments.The explorer's previous cash-strapped position has in the past seriously constrained its spending, but Mr Devaney said the business was now "essentially in a break-even position" and as it ramps up gas sales will be able to fund growth projects as well as debt reduction.

"It is really transformational for this company on day one but what's really exciting is it unlocks all the potential in our exploration acreage because now we have a pathway to market it allows the commercial and economic justification to go and explore and develop," Mr Devaney said.Central's gas sales, currently at 14.9 terajoules a day from its Palm Valley, Dingo and half-owned Mereenie fields near Alice Springs, are set to surge to 41.4 TJ/day thanks to the NGP.

https://www.copyright link/business/energy/gas/nt-pipe-to-fuel-growth-at-central-petroleum-20181206-h18toi

Mr Market still hasn't recognised the potential of our little gas company.

Ash