Lane
Appreciate your genuine question but there is a fair bit to this.....
It's a bit out of date now but I put a lot of work into this post and it is a good start.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ctp-share-value-sensitivity-analysis.3825906/?post_id=28656033
The computer model has undergone a lot more development and the control panel looks like a master control room for Mereenie Palm valley & Dingo with slide bars over the major variables and graphs everywhere.
The most important one is the slice through the operational NGP1
View attachment 993904
Since the above post CTP have started to come good with a flew numbers but I have ended doing a lot of development from first principals.
The outputs from the model is pretty sobering and I prefer to keep it confidential.
Justinmetals
Sorry I have not come back to you.
Easier if I post the "Pinball" diagram again.
View attachment 993925
To keep things safe the following is my personal appreciation of the situation.
The market delivery pipeline capacity log jam is presently the Carpentaria pipeline with a 119 TJ/day speeding ticket which is already carrying the PWC 30 TJ/day for about 25oK headed for Phosphate hill.
NGP2 is going through FID (Final investment decision) see my recent CTP posts.
When ether NGP2 is built or the Carpentaria pipeline is upgraded it would IMO be feasible to add the necessary compression to the NGP build if of course someone comes up with a transport agreement.
My best guess is that all things being considered CTP will have to live with the present limitations on NGP1 for at least 2-3 years.
In any case the Amadeus pipeline would also need to be upgraded and as far as I know it is a low pressure pipeline & this would have to be done by looping. (Essentially another parallel pipeline system)
By the way, if piping reform is implemented in the near future, we will have watch out that PWC doesn't beat us for the third time and fill up more of the NGP with spare Blacktip gas. That would really hurt our bottom line with a meagre 24.3 TJ of revenue gas capacity presently available down the NGP assuming that MAC want their presold gas.
Why wouldn't they since they got if for under $2/GJ at the CTP gate.
I would reasonably expect CTP to be entering into serious negotiations with Jemmena and APA now that the Joint marketing agreement has been cleared by ACCC.
Hope this helps
Regards
OGP
