re: Ann: Cellestis Limited Announces Improved...
I'm still voting no. It seems ironic we should be worrying about generic competition when the TB market has been so recalcitrant in accepting Quantiferon. One would think this would work in our favour in the future. I do realise in theory that generic competition is not that implausible (the basis of the test is very simple), but I would have thought in practice it would take a while to pose a real threat. My understanding is that there are only two main suppliers of the skin test and they must have had handsome profit margins for ages. In other words the incumbent skin test market doesn't seem highly competitive and it is a really simple test. Besides, the Quantiferon brand is really strong, as basically everyone uses it instead of using a descriptive name for the whole blood IGRA, which is quite unusual. My other reasons for voting no are. Certainly, the economic outlook is a worry, but CST seems relatively safe to me compared with other investments. Afterall, we just need to gain market share from the skin test in an industry relatively insulated from downturns and the new CDC guidelines will be invaluable in enabling this. I don't think highly specialised knowledge is necessary to run and manage the business, especially with the new CDC guidelines, so if current management changes its not necessarily a bad thing. It might be good to revamp the board as well. I don't care if the SP drops because it will just be a great opportunity to buy more. Its puzzling that the CSAG changed their position so abruptly and perhaps they have information we don't have (such as generic competition emerging already). But I guess its also possible that the interests of major and small scale shareholders are diverging here. (I am one of the latter and it is easier for us to get out of a company when we please). As I understand it though its not impossible for small shareholders to sink the proposal because of the 50 % by numbers requirement. Above all, I'm voting no because I expect the new CDC guidelines on IGRAs for TB testing to be profoundly influential on our business. Considering it took 10 years of risk and effort to achieve these guidelines, not to mention 400 plus studies in the peer-reviewed literature, it is galling to see Qiagen swoop in and reap the benefits at this price.
CST Price at posting:
$3.76 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
