re: Ann: CEIP - Stage VI Drilling Programme U...
dgm - Thanks for the comparison to GBG. Definitely think IRD has a shot at being in GBG's shoes in 2-3 years (even though sp sucks at the moment). I get the grind size argument, but the problem is we will get diluted badly if the market doesn't recognize this aspect of the story before we give away blocking rights to a potential offtaker.
My guess is that management continues to surprise on the resource (although probably a month late!), and we should cross the 2bt threshold when they announce Stage VI. That should bring us to ~1.7bt at Murphy South alone, which will give us a ~20mtpa mine. This news should bring a respectable number of strategic suitors, which will lead to a re-rating of the sp.
As osr said, the extent to which management can reduce the opex number with the increased resource will be the key factor. If they can hold costs below $50/t FOB (with cost inflation baked in), we should be well on our way to production even if fears of IO price weakness are realized in 2015.
IRD Price at posting:
79.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
