Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-16

Oh Parma..... you have such a gift for understatement !
(And btw I saw someone with a tattoo today ....do you think it was a sign?)
(At least it was a sign ...but it didn’t say NWH and it wasn’t a fish or an eagle .... it said “Julia” )

I think we have been expecting a contract win announcement since before July 19, 2018 when FN Arena said UBS was expecting NRW to win 21% of $1.6 billion upcoming work for Rio’s Koodaideri and FMG’s Eliwana .
According to what Google tells me this is $336 million.

So far we have had $62 million bulk earthworks at Eliwana and $65 million at Koodaideri ....
Total ...$127 million....leaving more than $200 million in expected contracts to be won before we are worth $1.90 a share ?
Moelis and Citi targeted the same range ..
Moelis used NRW estimates of $1.1 billion annual earnings ....


This confuses me given current prices ......

Nevertheless it seems that even back then everyone was expecting more contracts with the iron ore majors
....following which they expect the price to retreat to $1 90 a share.

Maybe this is why Wellington and Paradice and Dimensional all left the building ?

Are we overblown ?
The people here don’t seem to think so, not even using conservative estimates.
Why were target prices so low back then given they expected us to win much more work than has already been announced?



July 19, 2018
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/07/19/nrw-holdings-kicks-off-with-iron-ore-win/
...".........................
......
.......UBS expects works for Rio Tinto's Koodaideri and Fortescue's Eliwana will be awarded towards the end of the first half of FY19. Collectively, the broker calculates the civil works for these projects which NRW Holdings can address are worth around $1.6bn.

The broker currently assumes an overall win rate of around 21% for the company. A 33-50% win rate would drive a 12-29% uplift to FY20 EPS estimates, all else being equal. UBS has a Buy rating and $1.90 target.

Moelis upgrades estimates for operating earnings (EBITDA) for FY18 and FY19 by 2% and 9% respectively on the back of the win. The broker's revenue estimate of $1.11bn is in line with recent company guidance and represents revenue growth in excess of 40% over FY18.

Moelis considers the stock one of the better ways to play the upcoming reinvestment cycle in Western Australia and for gaining exposure to the potential for further contracts to be awarded over coming months from Fortescue Metals and Rio Tinto. Nevertheless, the broker considers the risk/reward balanced and moves to a Hold rating on valuation grounds, with a target of $1.87.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $1.95 target, now more confident regarding the company's ability to capitalise on the increase in iron ore expenditure in the Pilbara. Citi increases FY19-20 estimates for net profit by 2-5%.”