Well he is more likely to have inside contacts and information...

Well he is more likely to have inside contacts and information about the mesh case than the average punter, and arguably that's how most analysts make their best calls.

To me it's just a matter of the return on the WIP, the settlement or win is basically in the bag. Luckily we do have past information and documents on how much (roughly) Shine got for the hip replacement case a few years ago. By all measures the commentators are expecting a bigger settlement than back then, so I'd imagine it wouldn't be that hard to come up with a rough WIP figure and possible profit on the mesh case based on this and other similar historical settlements.