Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-67

Old post (21360428) back in 15th/Dec/2016

"I don't agree with this statement. MB's JV is CBH, Wirlong is JOGMEC. If both MB and Wirlong get massive JORC resources, IMHO both of them will be interested to protect their 50% already own.

1) Say CBH offers $50m for PEX, than CBH will own other 50% of Wirlong. CBH can get drive hard ball try to sell 50% stake in Wirlong to JOGMEC for $40m, JOGMEC will have no choice but pay to protect their 50% ownership already own. Essentially cost them $10m to get other 50% MB (including T1 & T3), Tungstan, Apollo etc. that's a bargain.

2) Similarly, say JOGMEC offers $50m for PEX, than JOGMEC will own other 50% of MB. JOGMEC can get drive hard ball try to sell 50% stake in MB to CBH for $40m, CBH will have no choice but pay to protect their 50% ownership already own. Essentially cost them $10m to get other 50% Wirlong, Tungstan, Apollo etc. that's a bargain.

3) Third party comes to play and offers $50m for PEX. Than both CBH & JOGMEC will need to make counter offer of higher prices.

Neither, CBH, JOGMEC or third party has shares in PEX. There is no blocking stake of 10% to prevent takeover. I spoke to Rob about this. The smartest thing for CBH and JOGMEC to do is buy 10% stake in PEX to block any takeover. But to buy 10% stake (20% total, 10% from CBH, 10% from JOGMEC) will push PEX share significantly higher because so tightly held.

If a third party comes along with $50m bid than they can sell 50% of MB to CBH for $40m and 50% of Wirlong for $40m to JOGMEC and make $30m profit plus keep other projects (float back on ASX as a separate listed company)."

Now my prediction back in 2016, a third party has arrived. This third party SBM might not sell anything to anyone. Things are getting more interesting. As I said before, back in 10-15c trading range JOGMEC and CBH should have taken 10% each on PEX. They would have made money and block any takeover.