I am feeling uneasy about AWE because the actions of SXY and COE appear to have some elements that could indicate a negative direction in the future of AWE.
For example:
SXY capital raising then- COE Capital raising then- AWE (fill in the gap)
COE report indicates APA might spend $250mil to fund Orbost gas plant for COE’s 55TJ/day
Given that AWE plan to develop New Gas plant for half-share of 100TJ/day then AWE might need to fund greater than $250mil. In addition AWE and partner will need to fund 20 additional wells (let’s say 100mil).
AWE might need to sell AAL to acquire funding. ($50millionl but more likely 10 to 12 Million in a fire sale)
AWE might buy half Waitsia for $50 mil (somebody needs to profit from Waitsia).
All up the total AWE might need to finance is about $400Mil.
I feel that capital raising is short term future given that money is current flowing to COE’s capital raising.
AWE might need to refinance before AWE’s market cap dilutes to below that needed for a successful capital raising( let’s say 150 mil market capital).
I’m thinking 33cps bottom line followed by capital raising given the current trading traffic and market feel ATM.
A low SP may lead to a promised dividend.
The current team is doing a great job at selling the dream.
DYOR and have a nice day.
AWE Price at posting:
49.3¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
