While I would never say never, i don't see a CR on the horizon for AWE.
On your issues, let me counter with some comments.
AWE's gas plant is an expansion of the existing Xyris plant. In saying that, it will not require any where near the sort of capital as per the new plant at Orbost. Furthermore, the initial phase of the development will only require an added 2 wells, not the 20 you expected. This is due to the very high flow rates of this high quality reservoir. So on both counts, capex is substantially lower.
On the ORG sale, I understand that AWE was not a buyer in the official process. Therefore it would come as no surprise to not see them interested in 100% now. It is also counter to all risk management processes and not many companies will do it for that reason. BTW, $50 million is way low for the value, as $180m ish was declined on the asset.
AAL is problematic at $50 oil. AWE is carried for a substantial amount of expenditure by STO, but it does not appear to be moving forward at this point due to oil prices. In any event, immediate capex will be muted.
Hope this helps. Happy to discuss.
Cheers, Al
AWE Price at posting:
49.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
