I am coming to the view that I should wait until I get sell recommendations from the analysts /brokers before buying anything.
I take a more or less pure value approach to my investing, appreciate the comments on this thread. Started buying CDD in February, got a nice 25% extra allocation with the crap raise and picked up a few more at $1.4 or so.
After dividends Mr Market thinks I am down 33% ($10,000) but I disagree as I have a long term horizon and don't need to sell.
This company now has a conservative balance sheet with a gearing ratio of 22% and a proprietorship ratio of 53%, it is one of the only consultants to have an underlying business that has remained profitable and is selling at a heavy discount to book value (mainly intangibles) after writedowns. The new management is more likely to have overstated writedowns to make profitability easier in future than to the opposite.
If I compare this to SKM where I used to work and the price Jacobs paid at the peak of the mining boom, it is clear that Crescent picked up a bargain. Maybe the same EBITDA multiple of 1 years earnings but that can mean anything if you pick the best and worst years in a cyclical industry such as this one.
I don't think any particular skill is needed to reduce costs and get the business back to acceptable levels of profitability and Crescent has skin in the game to do it. They need to be careful with morale in a business that is purely made of goodwill though.
In the short term as others have said they will tell us all about doom and gloom but I reckon do as they do and not as they say. The time to sell will be when Crescent does.
How is CDD doing with it's clients the business is hard to analyse from the outside (perhaps I shouldn't have bought it), it seems to me though that a $300m market capitalization is pricing in a further dramatic decline in the business which is most unlikely to occur. The shareprice will fluctuate so you need to be psychologically prepared for that over the short term and invest with a long term horizon if you are considering anything.
Just My Honest Opinion, Do Your Own Research and
Merry Xmas all
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Last
24.0¢ |
Change
0.010(4.35%) |
Mkt cap ! $13.28M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
23.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 23.0¢ | $25.79K | 111.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5 | 23.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
24.0¢ | 31952 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 14017 | 1.060 |
1 | 14492 | 1.035 |
1 | 15000 | 1.030 |
1 | 33300 | 1.025 |
1 | 24875 | 1.005 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.080 | 14424 | 2 |
1.095 | 1729 | 1 |
1.125 | 9538 | 1 |
1.140 | 5000 | 1 |
1.150 | 10949 | 1 |
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