Stayer - credit metrics. Their ICR will be something like $83m...

Stayer - credit metrics. Their ICR will be something like $83m EBIT to $10.2m net finance costs makes it about 8x, and it would have a covenant (if there is one) of maybe about >3.75x - so they are strong there. A leverage ratio might be 110m EBITDA to net debt of about $310m, which makes about 2.8x. This one is tight as their financials say the covenant is 3x. However this might be a tighter covenant for a good interest rate, and I suspect they can pay a higher rate of interest and extend this to about as much as 4x (and a lender may well blink at the bottom of the cycle with a business demonstrating a good plan for working capital release, or management making some promises about what will be done if the next half isn't on target etc.)

If H2 EBITDA is about 47m, then doubling that get you a leverage ratio of about 3.3x, which is outside the current covenant.

So I am keeping cash aside in the event of a crap raise, and while I don't think one will be required, I'm sort of hoping that one will happen - which is probably very nasty of me.