We are still trying to dissect what all these Cardia...

We are still trying to dissect what all these Cardia announcements add up to.

What we have from this announcement is:

- Annual supply requirement forecast for A$1 million.

- Nanjing population is 6 million+ (according to Wiki, According to the Sixth China Census, the total population of the City of Nanjing reached 8.005 million in 2010. The statistics in 2011 estimated the total population to be 8.11 million. The birth rate was 8.86 percent and the death rate was 6.88 percent. The urban area had a population of 6.47 million people.)

- Contract represents 7% of Nanjing City households

- The new factory has increased Biohybrid™ and Compostable bagmaking capacity to 100million bags
meeting the increasing global demand for Cardia’s carry and wastemanagement bags, hygiene and
nappy films and custom products.

From the Feb announcement, the original $250,000 deal was for the supply of Cardia waste management
bins and Cardia Biohybrid™ kitchen waste bags to the individual households of this region".

Presumably they all have the bins now, so as per this latest announcement, it is just plastic bags.

What can we extrapolate from the above?

A guesstimate that 7% of say 6.5m is 450,000.  So this contract is for 450,000 people with an annual forecast being $1m = $2.20 per person.  If we guesstimate 3 persons per household (could be way out), this represents an investment by the Nanjing Council of (rounded) 70 cents per household per year.

Looking at the photo and the size of the bags, and adding a bit of commonsense, you'd think each family would be given 365 bags, but this is a pure educated guess.

365*150,000 household = 54,750,000 bags per year

But that surely cannot be right because the annual capacity of the brand spanking new plant = 100m bags.

1 bag a day is therefore way too much.  Okay LOL - surely it cannot represent any less than 1 bag per week.  That would represent approx 50 bags per household per year. 50*150,000 households = 7.5m bags per year

7.5m bags per year represents 13% of the factory's production.  Sounds a bit skewiff for only a rollout covering just 7% of the pop'n of a single city.  But they talk about 100m bag making capacity meeting global demand.

Has my logic missed something?  This does not compute.

I have not checked my calcs - must be way out somewhere.