In the end Lumberjack, Kalenn posts numbers and commentary on these threads as the holder of 15% of the proxies for CAY and is very rarely questioned.
I was attracted to the thread by his tag line "100 bagger". I don't own CAY shares but I may.
Using data from his spreadsheet and from the CBIX site he uses as a source of information I have questions about the analysis and I am using the CAY threads, as they should be, for discussion in order to refine my model. Everything I have considered has been posted.
You are correct in saying that there are many unknowns, the most significant of course being bauxite price. But the operation can be described reasonably well:
grade control, dig, transport, blend, stockpile
load, train, unload, stockpile
load, ship, unload
There are corollaries in Guinea, elsewhere in Africa and Australia for the most of the proposed activities and data from CBIX to help one arrive at a reasonable cost estimate and current ore value.
So I shall continue for another post or two and then you may have me as a co-shareholder or have my silence.
As for the drilling - you've got 500Mt at 45% total, 150Mt at 49% total and who knows what when a high grade plateau is selectively mined. A few gibbsite samples from surface don't necessarily represent the underlying mineralisation. I'd bet you could pick up lumps of gibbsite on every plateau.
Given the extremely long distances the bauxite is to be transported, beneficiation will be included if it works.
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