I have been asking who I consider to be industry specialists the exact same questions as have been raised here and the responses I am receiving are closer to Kalenns assumptions than not. (In fact in some cases the numbers are far better so they make his estimates look conservative which is scarily good for existing and potential investors). These industry guys are ex Alcoa, and for mine are trust worthy.Lets face it we can all pot shot each other over their opinions, but until the Op Ex and Cap Ex numbers are published by CAY in a few weeks time, we are all taking an educated guess. Funny thing is I think everyone is somewhat on the right track in their own quirky ways. My only question remains the shipping costs to China, and who pays for the shipping to that location if the CAY bauxite is of the highest quality. China will want our grade.....at what cost to them?
After speaking to the company representatives at the AGM, there is certainly enough demand along the Atlantic to question whether the company bothers going to China. If they were to deal off take external of China, it would be interesting to see how long before a major Chinese group knocks on the door with a cheque and a question.
The long and the short of it is the company has one of (if not the) highest graded undeveloped asset in the world, and is Tier 1 in grade and scale. If the mass reduction mentioned on page 12 of the 11 December presentation works, then this project will shoot the lights out.
There is little doubt that the Kribi port/rail link will be constructed, and there is little doubt in my mind that the terms of transporting the bauxite will be commercial. When a deal can be inked is subjective, however I feel we should all be hopeful of a conclusion shortly (fingers crossed). I doubt we are 20c a share once a rail deal is inked.
And finally for my 2c worth on Tolga..........how about we review our opinions in 12 months. His ability to market a development/production asset is undoubted in my mind. (SYR/NCZ)The rest of the noise about under performance lies around exploration, and as good as he is, even he doesn't control what mother nature has deposited!After meeting him at the AGM though, he is very confident his options will be in the money, and we are all here for the same thing (to get wealthier). Reminder not only does he sit personally at just under 5% of the shares on issue, but he has options payable at 35c, 60c and $1. We are kidding ourselves if we think he will allow these options to expire worthless.Clearly the share price has recently been heavily impacted by global stock market volatility, and end of calendar year re-weighting. I think the shrewd are taking advantage of the weakness, whilst most sit on their hands an do nothing and chase the share price later.
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Mkt cap ! $127.2M |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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