Well there is some tripe in this thread (II) for sure e.g. couple of days to return frac fluids is normal for this particular well. Whilst that may be true for some wells you cannot make a generalised statement IMO.
Let's look at what they have told us. They said 2 - 3 weeks to recover the frac fluids based on SLB's model of GOR (Gas to Oil ratio - the measured value is some 300% better than that from site data). By my reckoning they have probably used 25 to 30 k bbl of frac fluids. (Based on RNS info Micro frac 30 each stage, data frac 500 each stage and each stage full frac around 6000 bbl. Four stages gives 26k bbl approx.
So timescale wise looking at a timeline during which we were not told that any other intervention operations were carried out:-
14/7/2014 Milling operations complete
21/7/2014 Cleanup started - 2 - 3 weeks to complete with 40% fluid recovered.
So that's 10400 bbl recovered in 7 days. So thats 1485.714 bbl/day of recovered fluids along with hydrocarbons. (50 API Crude is roughly 3/4 of the density of water 750kg/m3 vs say 999 kg/m3 for water - depends on temperature though obviously)
On the 17/09/2014 we are up to 75% frac fluids recovered and we had a few interim updates but there were lots of other operations involved and we have no idea of the durations.
It appears that these well interventions - which are bread and butter stuff for the Schlumberger guys - have all been succesfull and they are back on track. Changing over to the production tree so they can reduce costs by letting the infrastructure surrounding the frac tree is good news. At least we know they don't plan to do another frac job!! A significant improvement in rates as well.
The share price weakness is down to uncertainty and fear and the fact the well has been shut in for intervention operations, with probably some assistance from some of the bigger players no doubt. Overdone IMO but there we are this is AIM.
I've seen nothing that means they should not be able to achieve the final objective here, and possibly in fact exceed expectations.
Didnt actually finish part of that post in relation to the 300% increase in GOR. The original duration to recover frac fluid will have been modelled on the original GOR, due to the increased liquids this will have changed the flow properties of the multiphase mixture quite markedly so the reservoir model and flow assurance calcs will be off in terms of fluid recovery. I.e it will take longer to recover the fluids. Add in the chemical flush fluids and that adds more dense fluid downhole. Therefore the nitrogen gas intervention to speed things up by reducing the density and viscosity of the multiphase mixture even further and provide lift.
Plenty of info on SLBs website on these interventions. They are pretty much the norm.
Next news of release of CT unit and production tree switchover soon hopefully.
OEX Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Geordieaway
