Just trying to pick the eyes out of articulate UK posts. This...

Just trying to pick the eyes out of articulate UK posts. This one's from the rat-bag AIM board:

RockDoc
Posts: 284
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	Column 1	Column 2
0	Opinion:	Buy
1	Price:	6.63

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No worries
Today 13:14
Just plotted out all the interpretable flow rates given to us by RM in his RNSs on a series of log plots so I can integrate the average flow rates of water and have a stab at estimating the rate of liquids (it is just a stab and so treat this with due caution!). Liquids includes some but not all of the gas so my numbers will likely be an underestimate anyway. To do this, just subtract the proportion of water recovery from 22500bbls which is what they pumped in during fraccing and day average it between each report and fit a log curve to the points (remember to include all the days between reports). I reckon we're averaging approx. 320bls of oil a day with water declining from 1285bbls/d after day 8 to around 102bbls/d at present which will reach 40bbls/d by Dec. That is a smoothed value so given the shutins and interventions all numbers will likely be higher and or quicker as time will have been lost without flow. Given that and the spritz job we should get a fairly clean production well in Oct. Either way this well alone is worth about $8m-$12m gross in the first year at $95bbl alone. Should keep pumping around 100bbls/d avg for 3-5 years based on NA wells with similar starting trends if you google search them ($25m total gross). That easily covers drilling costs and provides plenty of profit to sustain future expansive drilling. I'm happy with that for a first well and averaging down accordingly for the longer haul. If they eventually release numbers which tally anywhere near mine we're quids in for a mighty shuffle up. Fingers crossed and a tense wait now begins! GLA and play it the way you see it..RD.