Yeah things seem to be charging along nicely, looking forward to...

Yeah things seem to be charging along nicely, looking forward to seeing the Sept quarterly.

The only thing which I do not like at the moment are the high costs, forecast outflows next quarter are A$40.1M. Fully understand B2Y are in the ramp up stage, but this outflow is considerably higher than the A$113M/yr or A$28M/quarter which was outlined in the prospectus for 2018 (maybe it was USD not AUD)... But you can't have everything, and since they've locked in an average realised price of A$211.55 for the quarter, which was outlined in the Bank Guarantee Deferral announcement I suppose this is a nice counter...

I hold token amount, though still sitting on sidelines waiting to pull the trigger, not convinced just yet - this is why... Note I've made the assumption 85%/15% mix and 85% yield, which is roughly accurate... 2018 and 2019 CY look to be very lean and at the moment I cannot justify further investment unless they can cut costs...

ROM coal assumption from August presentation of 160kT in quarter...
ROM Production: 160kT
Met Coal Produced: 115.6kT @ A$211.55/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 20.4kT @ A$127.4/t (USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: A$27.05M (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: -A$13.05M --- Negative cash flow

So right now I am forecasting B2Y to be significantly cash flow negative this quarter and in the short term there be SP pressure...

1Mtpa Case - assuming mine cash cost of A$145/t from the August presentation
ROM Production: 250kT @ A$145/t
Cash Cost: A$36.25M
Met Coal Produced: 180.6kT @ A$211.55/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 31.9kT @ A$127.4/t (USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $38.21M + $4.06M  (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$6.02M / quarter  --- Not a very big number on B2Y's own cash cost forecast

2.2Mtpa Case - assuming mine cash cost of A$100/t from Prospectus (assuming its USD)
ROM Production: 550kT @ A$100/t
Cash Cost: A$55.0M
Met Coal Produced: 397.4kT @ A$211.55/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 70.1kT @ A$127.4/t (USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $84.1M + $8.9M  (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$38M / quarter  --- A$152M for the FY2020, worth the investment PE of 1X but lots of risk between now and then and many hurdles to jump...