Sept productivity was around 2400 t/unit /week for the 3.23 effective units to achieve 102kt ROM for 88 kt saleable.
My Dec estimate (same costs as Sept assumed) included a boost in productivity to 3000 t/unit/week (i.e. a 25% improvement in productivity) for 4 units in operation (I should really adjust fixed costs up but left as is to try and retain some modicum of optimism ) for 154.3 kt ROM and 133.1 kt saleable (overall margin A$-14.5/saleable t).
To get to 200kt of SALEABLE utilising the 4 units (i.e. without changing the structure of fixed costs) or annualised ROM rate of around 0.925 Mtpa / 0.8 Mtpa saleable you'd need to boost weekly production per unit to around 4500 t/unit/week, which is 50% productivity improvement beyond my optimistic assumption of 25% improvement in Dec quarter to 3000 t/u/wk, and some 187.5% improvement over September 2018 quarter productivity per unit .... this is a quantum leap. Not impossible, but it does appear improbable (if constrained to the 4 units). Noting that the Prospectus had hoped to have 6 units running from August 2018 .... which may have helped defray the fixed cost over more tonnes with a >relatively< small increase in variable costs. You can clearly see this effect in your calculations.
) for 154.3 kt ROM and 133.1 kt saleable (overall margin A$-14.5/saleable t).
