wiki has your answers for success rate at different phases: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research
Summary of clinical trial phases Phase Primary goal Dose Patient monitor Typical number of participants Success rate[2] Notes Preclinical Testing of drug in non-human subjects, to gather efficacy, toxicity and pharmacokinetic information unrestricted scientific researcher not applicable (in vitro and in vivo only) Phase 0 Pharmacokinetics; particularly, oral bioavailability and half-life of the drug very small, subtherapeutic clinical researcher 10 people often skipped for phase I Phase I Testing of drug on healthy volunteers for safety; involves testing multiple doses (dose-ranging) often subtherapeutic, but with ascending doses clinical researcher 20–100 normal healthy volunteers (or for cancer drugs, cancer patients) approximately 70% determines whether drug is safe to check for efficacy Phase II Testing of drug on patients to assess efficacy and side effects therapeutic dose clinical researcher 100–300 patients with specific diseases approximately 33% determines whether drug can have any efficacy; at this point, the drug is not presumed to have any therapeutic effect whatsoever Phase III Testing of drug on patients to assess efficacy, effectiveness and safety therapeutic dose clinical researcher and personal physician 300–3,000 patients with specific diseases 25–30% determines a drug's therapeutic effect; at this point, the drug is presumed to have some effect Phase IV Postmarketing surveillance – watching drug use in public therapeutic dose personal physician anyone seeking treatment from their physician N/A watch drug's long-term effects
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