Harba I think its a bit dangerous to dismiss all critical posts as inspired by bitterness or feelings of loss. I know most on hotcopper see this differently but to me the critical posts are of most value as if I want the bullish stuff I can just read the company releases. If I want even more bull talk, I can call the company.
As for your guess that the stock will double in the near future. What makes you think that? That means going from current firm value of around $200m to about $360m. A big jump and a big valuation for a group that is at best cash neutral at the operating level.
Until recently, I would have said that the good news just keeps rolling. Now that is not so clear. KL4 revenue will potentially be shared and more importantly, it may not even be tested. There may be news of a pooling agreement or something which I guess will be good news, albeit a bit strange when they haven't yet announced the problem!
The fact SCU spuds, probably next week, given they last said early sept, will not really be news. Based on what Whisky and Soul have said, it wont go much further than that so no good news this year there.
News on the development plans for Cosmo is not likely this year either in my view. Although potentially there could be some comment from Bluecrest that they are committed to going further. Though I doubt it.
West Eagle should stud I suppose. Nearly always been delays though so will see.
Overall, I think the good news is probably mostly done for they year on BCC and we're left with a stock that has had a very good run. Even earlier next year there could be a dearth of good news. The rig may not be utilised over winter as they work though planning on Cosmo. Onshore, still no confirmation that they will drill over winters as hotcopperites have said in the past? NWCI sounds like myriad issues listening to the conference call.
I agree its good news that there is another 5% holder. It is interesting though that the revaluation of BCC, at least from the lows, is largely driven by one investors view. I have agreed with their view up to here but it does get tougher. I certainly don't place much value on the view of one institution, particularly where they are taking what is probably a bit stake for them. Its slightly dangerous, what if they need to sell or change their view?
I don't trust long only investors views that much. I bet they are constantly talking to the company. In the end that makes them just too biased for me. An example I suspect is thier selling on the day of the rights issue announcement. Their view changed a little later, after many explanations from the company I bet. It worked this time for them but can be dangerous.
So, in the end I think that there is not much news in the short term and the share price direction will largely be driven by whether Contango keep adding. It would be helpful if the BCC investigators could find any info on them. Especially what percentage BCC represents of the funds its going in to. Would probably need to find someone who invests with Contango to get that.
BCC Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Held
