re: Ann: Becoming a substantial holder in FMS... I was thinking...

re: Ann: Becoming a substantial holder in FMS... I was thinking about "probabilities" over the weekend. Firstly, whether Yelena is who she appears to be. She would have had to seek some legal counsel and wouldn't she have threatened action directly to MMK rather than just go to court twice to get an injunction? Alternatively, MMK either do not have the finance tied up (I think Moscow Times hints that they dont) or they want to pull out. We know Russian stock analysts think the debt is too high - maybe the banks do as well. My guess is that the highest probability is that the finance is not tied up at this point and MKK need more time. So my estimate of overall probability of this going through ok at this stage in the game is 40% at best. Either Victor wants out or the banks don't want to play. On the plus side, there is probably a suitor somewhere around .20 that would take FMS on and I would think that the intrinsic value of FMS has gone up from .13 (before its run to .16 breakout). So my guess is that we can cap the downside at .18 - .20. The upside is .30. In the medium term it would likely resolve back to the upside. It is an even money chance at .25.