Only short term reasoning for a fall in OZL imo. (Assuming copper price stablish.)
I think it is possible those sophisticated traders that have taken the offer or will take it could have or might have already sold their OZL shares even though they don't have them yet. I think its possible to do this by shorting the shares and replacing the stock with the new issued shares for AVB holders.
That maybe one reason for current shorting imo.
They're still could be other reasons effecting appetite for OZL shorting too imo.
Either way and whatever is going on, the short positions for OZL have been increasing over last few weeks, On monday just over 1,000,000 new shorts were placed on OZL which was 54% of the OZL volume for the day, shorters are getting more excited...
I've sold a lot of my OZL's, bought some AVB and am holding them for now, hopefully like Owen i may be able to buy more OZL's back when and if the dust settles at a cheaper price, i don't think Owen will get near his $5, that will need some real sad news and deep pockets imo.
Heres the shorts link, scroll down to get new daily shorts placed, they are day or so behing and get updated about 11am or so, the chart is cummulative and is 4 days behind.
