Hi AJ The concept of "fair value" estimates in the gold mining...

Hi AJ

The concept of "fair value" estimates in the gold mining sector is constant source of bewilderment to the point of amusement. I've been in NST for over 5 years now and I've never seen a correct "fair value" estimate....... never ever...... not one, and the SP history proves that when compared to these historical estimates.

What about now? Ummm, I take a quick peek at the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (Institutional Brokers Estimate System) and see that the current price target has a mean of $5.20. That is the mean from all analysts covering NST at the moment and that total is presently from 15 different firms. Their price target estimates range from a low of $4 to a high of $6.50....... lol .........how is that for massive deviation in analytical ability.

Sure a SP price target is not exactly a "fair value" estimate because one is in 12 months time and the other is in the present (as is...... right now!). That means there are several or even many variables that can change quickly before now and then, none the less being the POG. It is all a bit of nonsense as it relates to goldies, isn't it? It most certainly is nonsense if one reviews both the "fair value" and "SP targets" from these analysts over the past 5 years............... not one has ever been correct......... none, nil, zilch, zero!! hahaha

I guess that is the real lesson behind that much overused term DYOR. Yeah but, the skill sets to do such research and then the calculations of estimated target SP are not easy to master. Plus, the market dynamics of the bullion market and especially the futures market needs to be overlaid on all the fundamentals before having any chance of getting close to accurate. How can anyone anticipate that correctly all the time any which way??? Hence, the poor performance of the analysts that cover the gold mining sector.

So what? The moral of the story is form your own opinion and stick to your convictions using a longer term view whilst maintaining a flexible and adaptable approach to unforeseen events at the macro level...... but that is a story that likely needs it's own book to explain!

IMHO................. NST will have a much higher mkt cap in the future and that means a higher SP barring any unforeseen dilution events. NST management have proven so far that they only go to market for capital raises that are 'accretive', so I just can't imagine them doing a dilutive acquisition. GLTAH and this post is not addressed to traders........ that is a different story to be told!

Cheers