DYOR. Not advice. Key points: RCF providing USD $25M term loan (...

DYOR. Not advice.
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Key points:

• RCF providing USD $25M term loan ( estimated AUD $33.25M )
• Placement of AUD $20M
  • RCF subscribing for USD $5M as part of this placement
  • Farjoy (major shareholder) committing to AUD $5M in this placement
  • One listed 10c option issued for every 2 shares in placement ( 10c strike, expiry in 5 years )
  • Total of 333,333,333 placement shares at $0.06
  • Total of 166,666,667 placement options
• Securities Purchase Plan of AUD $5M ( for existing shareholders at 16 May 2018 )
  • Total of 83,333,333 SPP shares at $0.06
  • One listed 10c option issued for every 2 shares in SPP ( 10c strike, expiry in 5 years )
  • Total of 41,666,667 SPP options

References:

• https://www.batteryminerals.com/wp-...rms-of-US30m-Debt-Equity-Funding-with-RCF.pdf
• https://www.batteryminerals.com/wp-...raises-20m-to-continue-building-Montepuez.pdf

Summary of funds raised in the short term (excluding from options):

• $33.25M via term loan
• $20M from placement
• $5M from SPP
• $58.25M total

Longer term the options under the above initiatives will raise an additional $54M in 2023. Existing options already identified in the Appendix 3B will raise another $12M between 2020 and 2022. Of course this assumes all of these options are exercised.

Dilution and Funds Raised

To work out the full dilution picture, I took data from the latest Appendix 3B which was issued 3 April. See:
https://www.batteryminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Appendix-3B.pdf

Of course these figures only take into account known dilution from information the company has already published.




Impact of Dilution on Share Price

DYOR. Not advice. You are encouraged to do your own research.

These are my own estimates of potential Battery Minerals Market Cap and Share Price based on my analysis of dilution profile, their published production profile and a peer analysis with Syrah Resources.

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Taking into account production plans through to 2023, I've used a simple peer-analysis from Syrah Production and MCAP to arrive at a peer-based estimate of the contribution of 1kt of production output to Battery Minerals Market Cap. From this and the dilution profile I've estimated year-by-year share prices.

MCAP comparisons with Syrah are also provided.

Year-by-year share issue figures highlighted below have been taken from the table above.



Notes / Comments

Syrah's peak was $4.95 back in January. Their current share price is $3.40. IMO we can perhaps assume that general improvement in graphite sector sentiment will lead to more positive valuations in the sector. That's my thinking anyway ( so can potentially add 20% to 30% to estimates above ). Thoughts???