I think the valuation will be Good and more than enough to keep the ASX happy. However one cannot read the minds of those in the ASX with the final say on the future of this company.,
I am assuming that there is still some work to be done on the plant before production can commence which management will undertake once the ASX approves the prospectus . You must remember that this plant has been kept on care and maintenance over the last few years due to the poor copper price and lack of reliable ore supply and will require money and engineering skills to getting re-adapted for its full potential as Cobalt and Copper producer.
This will naturally be commenced until the asx approves the re-listing. Management will not risks its funds and resources if the Asx does not approve the re-listing,
The main issue I think will be the ramp up of the plant to be able to produce cobalt and copper again the stated and expected production targets and this will require expert and efficient professional engineers and associated staff. Production won’t be just flicking on a switch and the cobalt will magically appear. There will be a few months yet before we see commercial quantities of cobalt ready for sale.
I have also noted that the political risk of the Congo has been reduced with the new government showing stability and listening to the mining business concerns. The cobalt price is improving with a rumour of only ethically sourced and stamped cobalt to be sold on the LME which could explain the massive drop in recent months of cobalt prices as Chinese buyers dump their existing stick piles of cobalt which probably was not “ethically sourced”. It just makes one wonder how can this price drop so sudden from $90k per ton to $30k in under a year when there is no massive spike in production of cobalt.
We all know the positives right of the project now and I dont want to re-iterate why the project will fly to the moon if its re-listed. This has been discussed ad nauseum in the threads over this long waiting period which has led to many feeling trapped, illiquid and having their dreams put on hold. We are not yet over the finishing line, but its at least in sight!
We will need much more capital to refurbish the plant and that’s why Brewer ( who has more time now since booted out of Vector) has been around in Europe raising some more funds to assist with the capital raising. Its a much smarter move for Winmar to be jointly listed on the London Exchange and the ASX as we will probably need the capital for the ramp up and refurbishment now which could be anywhere $8m-$12m. Getting capital now here in Australia is expensive and scarce, it will be much easier in Europe, especially where the EV auto revolution is ramping up with the major car companies such as VW and Mercedes announcing their conversion to EV over the next few years.
For the ASX to reject this project now would not be good for ASX’s reputation as it would send a signal to the markets that its difficult to be on the ASX and one should try elsewhere likeLondon or Toronto. The ASX may finally want one or two more minor items such as management plan for the refurbishment of the plant and it expected time frame and maybe evidence of extra funds to complete it. The off take agreements would likely be subject to the ASX allowing re-listing hence no announcements from management. There are plenty of end buyers and even the Spot Market if no one comes to the party, but if there is a corner stone investor with a off-take agreement they will want to know that its been approved to trade again on a major exchange to guarantee liquidity and a exit strategy for its invested funds.
Anyway, even if the ASX does continue be difficult, we have the option of being listed on the London Exchange which has a greater optimistic appetite for African mineral plays than the ASX. It should be an easier path to get listed but its also very expensive for compliance each year with $1.5m in compliance costs. This process as stated by a previous announcement is well under way.
Well come late May or early June, even if the ASX keeps its stubborn stance we will at least be listed on the London Exchange and shareholders will have to trade on the LME buy and sell the stock. Then we will all witness if this amazing project is either the hero of 2019 or the disappointing over hyped dud one that has led to both sides with passionate and entertaining debates. 8-10 weeks and counting.
