I hate to be boring but: The share price is a terrible way to...

I hate to be boring but:

The share price is a terrible way to predict the news feed!

We've seen wild swings in the SP over the past few years and the only move that in hindsight relates to the actual company's prospects is the steady longer term move higher. The short term moves are virtually random. Also, IMHO NRW actually has been good at keeping a lid on things but obviously there are other parties involved in some of these contracts. The NRW results announcements are the best example where they keep it under wraps.

This Baralaba contract is important for sure, but above that:

1. what will the FY18 Revenue be? approx $750m

2. what will the FY19 'locked in' revenue be? as of now maybe almost $700m already? by Aug 2018 hopefully $1Bn+ after a win at Rio or similar and maybe this Baralaba too!

3. what will the FY18 margins be? probably down on FY17 but I'd expected still solid. So maybe 12c eps per share (this is less important than point 2 because by the time we know this result, the focus will be on point 2 - strong growing revenue and new margin levels after the first full year with the new acquisitions fully bedded down).

This contract moves point 2 by $100m approx, but a large RIO contract or other wins will be much bigger and more important.

I think these are what determines the value in the company by end of 2018 and the market will come along at some point after that if you're looking to sell out.

Some guesses here and DYOR but big picture is where you need to think as a small investor and ignore $1.25 share price which is not a reflection of the value that is to be on the table and short term moves caused by minor bad news with contracts etc.

DYOR etc, GLH,
pb