Hi Essa, nice post I gave you +1 for great analysis, however i believe you should add a third risk : price per tonne to be received by Syrah once they achieve 300.000 tpa.
They are basically inundating an already highly competitive low margin oversupplied market with small flakes graphite (the market is currently a 600.000 tpa market, they will be adding 50% more supply capacity over the next 2 years, could demand catch up so fast ?) . If demand doesent catch up as fast as syrah's supply, then they need to reduce substantially the price to liquidate their inventories....If they sell the small flakes at 400 US$ per tonne and their cost is 350 US$ per tonne that is a 14% very low gross margin...IMO that is the biggest unkown risk (which makes it an uncertainty rather than a risk, due to being extremely challenging to forecast) : what is the average basket price they could obtain ? time will tell, good luck to all.
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