I think the ORG sale will give the best benchmark the average investor will get as to the value of Waitsia. It's not perfect because a lot of assumptions go into bid modelling but it will give an indication as to what value the industry gives it.
But AWE has several other assets apart from Waitsia and they all need valuing too, which is a very difficult job at current oil prices which for most projects around the world will be close to breakeven. So even small fluctuations in the long-term oil and gas price can have significant changes on project value.
Also don't forget that as a much smaller company than ORG with insufficient cash on hand to develop Waitsia Stage 2, AWE will need to raise funding. If equity is required there would be significant dilution to the current SP from that too.
All in all, whatever value ORG get for their stake it will remain quite difficult to value AWE effectively.
AWE Price at posting:
58.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
